Basketball is one of the most popular, most played, and most-watched sports in the world. It sits alongside other big spots such as football, baseball, and cricket. With its scale and popularity worldwide, it comes without a shock that bettors are big on placing their money for basketball games, too.
When it comes to basketball betting strategies, a guide that can help you comb through all the complex stuff and make better strategic wagers is always a welcome thing. Here are some helpful tips for basketball betting.
General Basketball Betting Strategies
Here are some of the general basketball betting strategies you have to know about.
Consider Outside Teams
An outside team, in basketball, is a team from a different division, from a different league, or a straight-up new addition to the roster of league teams such as the Charlotte Bobcats (now Hornets) to the NBA in 2004. Usually, these teams are either unknown or lack the reputation yet to become a major favorite of the bookies. Thus, the odds for an outside team are often given at a high value.
As a bettor, this is something that you may consider taking advantage of. Similar to betting on the underdogs, betting on outsiders can prove to be more beneficial than just simply settling for the easy favorite pick.
The best way to bet on outside is by making quarter bets for them. Usually, outsiders are known to perform and win at least two quarters out of four. If you feel like betting for them to win that game may be banking on them too much, then go for betting on them for a specific number of quarters only.
Bet on Totals Based on Previous Games
The thing about basketball, particularly the NBA, is that you can learn a lot about how each team has performed in their past games, including their past scores. This will help a lot in making better bets when it comes to totals.
As with other sports you can bet on, a totals bet on basketball refers to a type of wager that combines the final scores of the two teams combined. It is usually wagered upon with an over or under bet, based on the numbers that the bookies would give out. For example, bookies give you a total of 180 for a game between The Los Angeles Lakers the Phoenix Suns. If the final score combined turned out to be 178, then under bet won.
To make previous games of a team give you a helpful overview of what to expect, take the average score of their past five games. For example, the Miami Heat may have an average score of 95 for their past five games. Based on their field goal percentage, this can either tell you if they are expected to make around the same points again or somewhere below that range.
Choose the Games According to Value
If you have been into sports betting for quite some time now, then you probably know some things, including that bookies often give out odds that have very little value to them (thus the saying that "the bookies always win"). However, that is not to say that value bets do not exist.
From time to time, bookies and their odd compilers may let something slip and give more value to some lines and odds than they would normally intend to do. However, banking on bookie slip-ups is not that good of a strategy if you are looking for one. A better strategy is to have your own "odds" before even looking at the odds that bookies are offering.
Take for example a game between the Lakers and the Knicks. Using information you know about their players and past games, your personal odds are that the Knicks would lose by around 6 points. So, that would be an odds of +6 for them, as the underdog.
Now, after you look at your bookie's odds, you see that Knicks are the underdog for +8, which means the bookies expected them to lose for eight points. This is a value bet, as the bookies actually expect them to lose by more points than you do, giving you more room to win the bet.
Lookup Injury News
Rumors or official news of injury can have a major impact on a game, and consequently, the odds, too. An injured player, especially if a major hitter of the tweak, can mess up the team dynamic. This can easily turn a major favorite into a huge underdog faster than you can see the odds change on your betting app. Not knowing the strength of the teams is a big reason why sports bettors lose.
Take for example the Golden State Warriors in an upcoming game where they may be the huge favorite in an upcoming game. Now, news of Stephen Curry's injury broke out - he would need to sit the next game out. With this, the team has lost a player that could have brought them huge points. This also changes their team dynamic last minute. This is something the opposing team can take advantage of.
As a bettor, you should always be in the loop about this type of news.
Odds are expected to adjust after such news breaks out, and you may then find good lines once it gets adjusted.
Bet on Underdogs During Home Matches
Statistically speaking, home underdogs are most likely to win than visiting favorites. So, if ever you find good odds that places the home team as the big underdog, it may be a wise decision to put money on it.
After all, teams try that extra little bit harder when they're in front of their home fans. There is also a debatable effect of playing in a team's home court on their morale and performance - some say that it can give them a considerable boost that can help the game be turned to their favor if it isn't already yet. However, not everyone agrees with this.
However, be careful placing spread bets on big home underdogs. Most of the time, big home underdogs may win only by a small margin due to the fact their against superior opposition..
Mistakes in Basketball Betting
Making mistakes in basketball betting can turn a potentially profitable payday into a huge loss before you can even realize it. With that in mind, here are some of the most common (and impactful) basketball betting mistakes you should avoid.
Parlays for Basketball Matches
Parlay betting is a popular way of wagering for a lot of sports, not just for basketball. What makes it an exciting choice for a lot of punters is the fact that it can give you a huge payout should your entire bet pan out. However, it can also be a risky way to bet, especially if you are not that on an "expert" level yet when it comes to betting on the sport.
A parlay bet is a bet that combines multiple bets into one. It can be a combination of a money line and a spread and a total, for example. To win your parlay, all legs or parts of the parlay must be won and satisfied. If only one is not won, the entire bet is lost.
What makes parlay bets not recommended for the common bettor is the fact that it is very easy to lose them. Due to how it works, you can consider parlays as a high-reward, high-risk type of bet. A few parlay losses (especially big parlays) can have a huge impact on your bankroll.
Chasing All Loss Basketball Wagers
Not every day is a good day. As other gamblers might put it, "Lady Luck" will not be on your side all the time. For the "not so lucky" days, a lot of gamblers make the mistake of chasing their losses.
This is when a gambler is on a losing streak, making all the bad picks and losing a lot of money, but keeps on placing money on picks with the home that their "due" would come - or the concept that you would surely win after a few losses. This is the mindset of a problem gambler so if you find yourself thinking this way take a break immediately.
This may be the case sometimes for some people - they do win eventually and recover some of their losses if not all. However, for the most part, this is a very unreliable and unstrategic approach. There is a guarantee that a "due" would happen at any point, or at least at a point before you end up getting bankrupt.
Using a Betting System
Betting systems are often misleading, and do not work in the long run. These systems may promise "guaranteed" results but the truth is, no one can guarantee a result in sports betting. More often than not, these betting systems are straight-up scams (since they often usually come with a fee from an "expert" so they teach it to you).
Basketball Betting Strategies: FAQ
Here are the answers to some of the most commonly asked questions about basketball betting.
What are outsiders and why are they a good bet?
Outsiders are teams that come from different leagues, a different division, or new addition to the league altogether. Betting on them is often a good choice as bookie odds for them often give better value.
How can research on the teams' previous total score help with my basketball betting strategy?
Usually, the NBA website and other major sports news websites offer records of previous game scores for each team.
Where can I find the latest injury news?
Major news networks and/or websites such as ESPN often report the latest news about sports and its players, including any news regarding injuries.
Are basketball parlays wagers worth my money?
While they can give a huge payout if you win, place your money on parlays with caution. Only do parlays if you are sure you know what exactly you are doing.
What are basketball betting systems?
Basketball betting systems are supposed "guaranteed" betting strategies that offer little to no value at all. Sometimes, scammers even use it by selling a "guaranteed" system to unsuspecting gambling newbies.
Basketball is one of the most fun and interesting sport, and betting on it only makes it more fun and exciting. Using these basketball betting strategies will give you a better chance of coming out a winner.